Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
